What do you want to predict—and how confident are you?

Create a verifiable Yes or No market on a subject that fits BAMF’s safety rules. Put a percentage on it before BAMF reveals replies in this flow, challenge someone whose judgment matters, and keep the time-stamped record when it resolves.

Create your market How it works

BAMF never chooses the questions. Every market, challenge, and follow-up starts with a user.

Forecasting only. No deposits or payments. No wagers yet.

CREATED BY USERS

Ask it. Call it. Challenge someone. Settle it.

You choose what matters. BAMF records the rule, cutoff, source, forecasts, and revisions so the full call can survive the outcome.

1Ask one precise Yes or No question

2Make your probability call before the reveal

3Invite people whose judgment matters

4Settle it from the source and keep the receipt

Create your market

Private by defaultCommunity markets are reviewed before public release.

The board starts with you

No public markets yet.

BAMF does not pre-fill the board. Every market begins with a user choosing a verifiable question, source, and cutoff.

Create your market

Built from the question up

You choose what is worth predicting.

1Ask one precise Yes or No question

2Make your probability call before the reveal

3Invite people whose judgment matters

4Settle it from the source and keep the receipt

Calibration

Confidence is easy. Calibration is earned.

When you forecast 70–79%, events should happen roughly that often. BAMF always shows the resolved sample behind the claim.

Resolved forecasts

Open forecasts

Your private forecasts are included here and nowhere public.

My calibration

Calibration by forecast range

How scoring works

Keep forecasting. BAMF will wait for a useful sample before making a skill claim.

70%

A well-calibrated 70% should happen about 7 times in 10.

What calibration means

If you forecast many comparable events at 70%, roughly 70% of them should occur. One surprising result does not prove a forecast was poor.

Sample size before status

BAMF does not issue a skill rank from a tiny or cherry-picked sample. Domain, horizon, and resolved count stay visible.

This explains calibration; it is not a score or sample of invented forecasts.